New polling has revealed that Scottish voters see UK Labour leader Keir Starmer as a bigger influence on their voting decision than Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. The public opinion research, carried out by Opinion Matters for the advisory firm BIG Partnership, highlights a challenge for Labour’s Holyrood campaign in how it may be shaped by Westminster politics.
The poll of 1,000 Scottish respondents comes as Scottish Labour gathered for its annual Party Conference in Glasgow, where the party will look to solidify its position ahead of the next Holyrood election in 2026.
When asked who had the greater impact on their vote, 30% of respondents named Starmer, while 13% said Sarwar.
This suggests that Starmer’s leadership and policies could play a more significant role in shaping public opinion in Scotland than the Labour party north of border, underscoring the importance of UK-wide political dynamics.
Allan Barr, chief executive officer, BIG Partnership, said: “These figures present something of a dilemma for Scottish Labour. If the party can show a Labour government in Westminster is a positive game-changer for Scotland then that will be helpful. However, it may also have to carve out its own distinct and compelling vision, especially if Labour nationally continues to struggle in the polls.
“Whatever politics people have, voters need credible alternatives ahead of the Holyrood election. In Labour’s case, this may prove to be tricky, balancing Westminster’s influence with Scottish Labour’s independence. However, there is an opportunity here for the party to strategically align with UK Labour while asserting autonomy where needed, allowing Sarwar to position himself as a leader that is both connected and independent, and one who will deliver real results in areas where he will say the SNP has struggled.”
Fraser Paterson, head of public affairs at BIG Partnership and a former Labour adviser, said: “These results raise questions about the balance of influence between Labour north and south of the border when it comes to campaigning ahead of the Holyrood elections, and whether Anas Sarwar can establish a distinct electoral identity separate from the Prime Minister, who inevitably is making most of the political weather.
“Like the Conservatives, Labour has long grappled with tensions between Holyrood and Westminster—but that doesn’t have to be the case. The real test for Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar is whether they can forge a more unified approach. For organisations looking to shape the public agenda, it’s essential to understand where the differences may lie and identify both the pitfalls and opportunities that come with them. Therefore, engaging effectively on both sides of the border has never been more important.”
Survey results
“When deciding how, if at all, to vote in the Scottish Holyrood elections, do the actions of Keir Starmer or Anas Sarwar, if either, have more influence on you?”
| More influence from Keir Starmer’s actions (Net) | 29.5% | 295 |
| Significantly more influence from Keir Starmer’s actions | 12.4% | 124 |
| Somewhat more influence from Keir Starmer’s actions | 17.1% | 171 |
| About the same | 27.3% | 273 |
| Somewhat more influence from Anas Sarwar’s actions | 9.9% | 99 |
| Significantly more influence from Anas Sarwar’s actions | 2.7% | 27 |
| More influence from Anas Sarwar’s actions (Net) | 12.6% | 126 |
| N/A – neither have influence on my decision | 25.5% | 255 |
| N/A – I do not plan to vote in these elections / I have not yet decided how I will vote in these elections | 5.1% | 51 |
Fieldwork carried out 14.02.2025 – 18.02.2025.
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