As 4 December approaches, all eyes are on Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison as she prepares to unveil what will surely be one of the most politically consequential budgets of the SNP’s time in government.
This year’s budget has all the makings of a high-stakes showdown—both within the corridors of Holyrood and in the wider battleground of Scottish public opinion. But the political drama will hardly end when Robison takes to the floor of Parliament. In fact, the real challenge for the SNP begins the day after, as they scramble to secure the necessary votes to get their budget through Holyrood, where their minority status looms large.
Here’s the irony: Rachel Reeves, the Labour Chancellor, may have handed Robison a lifeline, albeit unintentionally. With a hefty £3.4 billion funding boost coming from Westminster, Robison now has extra cash to sweeten the pot for potential parliamentary allies.
It’s a twist no one saw coming. A Labour budget that limits the SNP’s ability to promote its anti-austerity rhetoric may also give them the leverage to secure crucial support from opposition parties for their own budget.
And the SNP’s need for allies is dire.
The breakup with the Scottish Greens has left them governing in a precarious minority. Securing enough votes to pass the budget will require serious concessions and political manoeuvring.
The Greens will demand social and environmental policies that the SNP may find costly or unpalatable. The Liberal Democrats, another possible source of support, might push for scrapping the SNP’s prized National Care Service altogether or further funding for mental health support. The Conservatives and Labour surely see more political advantage in working against rather than with the current government. Robison will have to bargain—and bargain hard.
Yet, talk of an early election is more bluster than reality. The SNP and their opponents know that triggering one requires a two-thirds parliamentary majority, which isn’t easy to muster. Plus, few parties want to risk the uncertainty of a snap election. Instead, the budget process will likely turn into a pressure cooker of negotiations, with Robison dangling that extra Westminster cash to win over reluctant MSPs.
This budget will be a major test of the SNP’s ability to navigate minority government. Their management of Scotland’s public finances is under fire. Critics, including Holyrood’s Finance Committee, have cited a lack of long-term planning and a reliance on crisis management. Robison’s task is compounded by warnings from Audit Scotland that the government’s current approach to the nation’s finances is unsustainable. If the budget isn’t passed smoothly, it won’t be just a financial headache but a political disaster that fuels their opponents’ election narratives.
The extra funding forces the SNP to pivot from blaming Westminster for austerity to justifying their own handling of Scotland’s public services. Scottish Labour is framing this moment as proof they can deliver for Scotland. The Scottish Conservatives, led by new leader Russell Findlay, are calling for tax cuts, trying to seize the momentum and make the case for a pro-business, lower-tax Scotland.
The political choreography is delicate. Even if the budget fails initially, constitutional provisions prevent a US-style shutdown. The government can continue operating under emergency spending rules, but it would be severely constrained. And if income tax rates aren’t agreed upon, Scotland would default to Westminster’s tax bands—a symbolic and practical disaster for the SNP.
So, as we approach budget day, Shona Robison faces not just a financial but a profoundly political battle. Rachel Reeves may have made that fight a bit easier with her generous funding boost. But can Robison use that cash effectively to buy enough support, avoid an election crisis, and steady the SNP ship?
One thing is clear: this budget isn’t just about numbers. It’s a battle for political survival, where every move will influence the SNP’s fortunes—and shape the power struggle for all parties heading into the 2026 Holyrood election.
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