Paul Murphie from our public affairs team looks ahead to this week’s Programme for Government – and considers what it might mean for the First Minister and the country.
John Swinney is a new First Minister already running out of time.
As Parliament returns this week, he faces a critical moment—one that could define not only his leadership but also the future of the SNP. The party has just endured a disastrous summer, losing 39 seats in the UK General Election and watching Labour reclaim its strongholds in Glasgow and central Scotland. With two years until the next Holyrood election, polls are grim. The SNP is trailing Labour, and party membership has plunged by 10,000 in the past year.
Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison has warned that budget cuts imposed by the UK government will severely impact Scotland’s ability to deliver public services, marking what she calls a “new era of austerity” under the Labour government. Expected cuts exceeding £500 million have already halted non-essential spending. While Robison blames UK government cuts, the Scottish Fiscal Commission attributes much of the financial strain to the Scottish government’s own decisions, such as a council tax freeze and generous public sector pay deals. Environmental groups and the arts sector have voiced concerns, while opposition parties criticise the SNP for mismanaging finances and creating uncertainty.
For Swinney, the stakes couldn’t be higher. If he has any hope of victory in 2026, he must act decisively and immediately. His government’s 2024-25 programme is more than just a list of policies; it’s the beginning of the Holyrood election campaign and his effort to salvage his political career and the SNP’s dominance in Scottish politics. Swinney must use this moment to prove that he can lead Scotland through its most pressing challenges: an ageing population, public services under increasing pressure, and a sluggish economy.
At the recent SNP conference, Swinney made a telling admission in a closed-door session—later leaked to the media—that his government needs to regain the support of the middle class while solidifying its base of independence supporters. This is no easy task. The SNP’s hope lies in bringing forward a bold programme to win them back.
So, what can we expect from Swinney’s programme?
Eradicating child poverty
Swinney has declared the fight against child poverty as his single most important objective. He’s pledged £16 million to expand childcare, but the real test will be whether he can deliver on the ambitious goal of reducing child poverty to below 10% by 2030. Fail, and he risks alienating the very voters he needs for his own and maybe even his party’s political survival.
Delivering net zero
Scotland’s journey to net zero is another tightrope Swinney must walk. The government will introduce a new Climate Bill, but the reality is that the 2030 emissions reduction target is already slipping out of reach. Balancing the needs of communities dependent on oil and gas with the push for green jobs is fraught with political peril, something that Labour is clearly struggling with too. Yet, this is where Swinney must show he can lead Scotland into a sustainable future—or face the wrath of both environmentalists and traditional voters.
Improving public services
Public services are under increasing strain, and Swinney knows Labour is lurking, ready to pounce on any weakness. He’s promised that Scotland’s NHS staff will be the best paid in the UK, but money is tight. Reforms in healthcare and education are on the way, but will they be enough to stave off Labour’s advances? The Housing Bill, aimed at tackling Scotland’s housing crisis, will be a litmus test for his ability to enact meaningful change in the face of fierce opposition from the very investors Swinney says he wants to attract to Scotland.
Economic growth
The economic outlook is bleak. Swinney’s Finance Secretary, Shona Robison, will today unveil plans for spending cuts. Business leaders are already wary of potential tax hikes that could widen the income tax gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK. Swinney has promised “investment, investment, investment,” but can he deliver? His success—or failure—here will determine whether the SNP can win back the middle class, whose support is crucial for any hope of victory in 2026.
John Swinney is not just laying out a programme for government; he’s fighting for his political life. The next two years will be a test of his leadership, vision, and ability to unite a fractured party. If he fails, it could spell the end of the SNP’s grip on power. The clock is ticking, and the fightback must start now.
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